Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts

Saturday, 15 October 2011

Quantitative what? Inflation and monetary policy


Capitalism is an inherently unstable system. It is cyclical in nature. Precariously balanced between inflation and deflation, boom and bust, growth and depression.

Inflation

Inflation is commonly portrayed as a “rise in the cost of living”. It is measured by the government in two ways: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI). These measures track the prices of commodities.

On one level, inflation is the result of supply and demand. Recent fires in Russia have led the Russian government to stop exporting grain. This shortage of grain will increase the value of grain in world markets, causing the price, and that of other products such as bread, to be inflated. Conversely, were there to be an increase in the supply of grain, its value would fall, and the price would be deflated.

But this supply and demand can only partially account for inflation and deflation. Were grain to be as common as grains of sand, it would not become worthless. There is still labour invested in the sowing and harvesting of grain, still labour invested in the grinding of grain into flour, and the baking of flour into bread. The absolute value of an item is determined by the labour power invested in its production.

However, with industrialisation, the amount of labour needed to make bread has fallen. Whereas in the past, bakers would spend ten minutes kneading dough to make a single loaf of bread, now vast machines can knead hundreds of loaves of bread at once. Bread can be made without being touched by a human hand. This increase in the supply of bread will at first make the capitalist more money – he has more bread to sell. But as the market becomes flooded with mechanical bread its value will fall, its price is deflated. We then have very cheap bread, but less people employed to make it, and less people employed means a reduction in the ability of our workers to buy the commodities!

So what else can determine the changing price of a commodity?